This isn’t just a slowdown. There’s a transformation.
Long-haul truckload demand fell 25% in the first half of 2025, according to the Long Outbound Tender Volume Index (LOTVI). Instead of the rebound many expected, the trucking market stalled, and for drivers, that’s showing up as fewer miles, tighter competition, and flat rates.[1]
Rates Are Going Flat. Not Just Your Tires
Contract rates for dry van freight are nearly unchanged from this point in 2024, despite supply chain disruptions earlier in the year. On the other hand, spot rates briefly gained momentum at the end of 2024, but by mid-2025, they slipped back. [1]
Together, these point to a market that hasn’t recovered and isn’t quite yet willing to pay more to move freight.
Intermodal Is Taking the Long Miles
One of the biggest changes behind the scenes is the resurgence of intermodal shipping, which began reclaiming market shares in mid-2024 as shippers increasingly chose slower but cheaper rail options for long-distance freight. Rail capacity has expanded significantly since 2020, making it easier to add containers than trucks.[1]
What does that mean on the ground?
- Long-haul (800+ mile) freight is shrinking
- Intermodal is handling more cross-country moves
- Trucking is increasingly used for short-haul and final-mile delivery
For drivers, that would translate to fewer long runs and more competition for regional loads.
Cloudy Skies and Murky Waters
Global instability has also reshaped shipper behavior.
Ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea have made ocean shipping less predictable, pushing shippers to extend order lead times. That extra buffer gives them more flexibility once freight reaches the U.S., allowing them to prioritize cost over speed. [2]
To manage costs, shippers are:
- Routing more freight through ports with faster rail velocity
- Shifting non-urgent truckload freight to intermodal
- Evaluating Less-Than-Truckload – and rail as alternatives to full truckload
In this shifting environment, platforms that unify decision-making are becoming critical. Solutions like Unified Logistics Control Platform™ help shippers and carriers adapt by bringing visibility across modes, enabling smarter routing decisions as conditions evolve.
Cloudy Skies and Murky Waters
Meanwhile, the housing market remains muted, which matters because housing drives a large share of freight demand from building materials to appliances and furniture.
High mortgage rates elevated home prices, slower hiring, and weakening consumer confidence are all contributing factors. This widespread economic uncertainty has led to consumers buying less, consequently lowering freight volumes. [1]
When people buy less, freight volumes follow.
What Truckers Should Be Watching in 2026
Freight recessions tend to last longer than expected, putting pressure on cash flow and operational flexibility. When recovery is slow, the carriers that survive are the ones that stay disciplined, informed, and adaptable. [3]
If economic clarity improves or demand accelerates unexpectedly:
- Capacity shortages could appear fast
- Rates could move suddenly
- Drivers with visibility and flexibility will be best positioned
GRENNEX’s Transportation Management System gives carriers better control over planning, execution, and performance, helping them respond faster when market conditions shift. Paired with a broader ecosystem with a Unified Logistics Control Platform™, carriers can gain the real-time insights needed to stay competitive.
After years of excess capacity unwinding, the market is more fragile than it looks.
From Tension To Transition
For drivers and carriers, the challenge is staying profitable and on top of a market defined by uncertainty, shorter hauls, and tighter margins. That’s where clarity and control matter most.
Through the GRENNEX Transportation Management Systems powered by Unified Logistics Control Platform™, drivers can find third-party software to help them find optimize their processes and through the application they can manage loads, trading partners, and utilize tools built for today’s freight environment, not yesterday’s.
Because when the market turns, and history says it will, the drivers who stayed prepared won’t be scrambling.
They’ll already be moving.
Book a partnership call with GRENNEX and experience clearer operations, stronger coordination, and a system designed for today’s freight environment
Sources
[1] – Freightwaves : https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trucking-market-stalls-in-first-half-of-2025
[2] – Megacorp News: https://www.megacorplogistics.com/weekly-freight-market-report-week-of-december-8-2025/
[3] – OTR Solutions : https://otrsolutions.com/blog/what-truckers-need-to-know-about-the-freight-recession